Alan Alger
2:38pm, Fri 5th Oct 2012
Blue Square Bet Premier leaders Forest Green Rovers travel to Wrexham in the game of the weekend in the division. Dave Hockaday’s side did the double over Andy Morrell’s team last season. Their win at The Racecourse Ground back in March of this year came at an incredible best market price of 15/2. This season it’s a very different story and an away win is priced at just 2/1. The fact that Wrexham are 6/5 to win this game shows that both teams are considered title contenders this season. In fact both can be backed at 4/1 to win the title. Forest Green have not conceded more than one goal in any match this season, but the downside to that is that they’ve only kept two clean-sheets in 12 matches – meaning they’ve conceded exactly 1 goal per game in ten of their matches. The third placed Red Dragons are unbeaten at home, where they’ve conceded just three goals in six games. A low scoring encounter looks likely and ‘Under 2.5 goals’ at 4/5 could be the best bet. Second placed Newport County are the 5/4 favourites to win at Tamworth on Saturday. The Exiles have won their last two away games, but both of their defeats this season also came away from Rodney Parade. Tamworth are up to seventh with three wins in their last four matches. Marcus Law’s team are 7/4 outsiders for a victory that could potentially take them up into the play-off zone. Lincoln City were well beaten at Forest Green last Friday and the hard games come thick and fast as they now host title favourites Luton Town. The Hatters are priced at 8/11 to win away from home, where they have a record of four wins in six games already this season. Lincoln have sunk to 19th in the table and their only three wins this season have come at home to three of the current bottom 5 clubs in the table. The Imps are best priced at 10/3 to make it three wins on the bounce at Sincil Bank.
Dartford’s incredible form has taken them into play-off territory and earned their manager Tony Burman a September ‘manager of the month’ award. Seven victories in their last nine games sees them offered at 4/1 to win at Grimsby Town this weekend. The Mariners can leapfrog their opponents in the table with a win priced at 8/13. They have won their last four home games and could put an end to Dartford’s shock run of form. Macclesfield Town are winless in their last three matches and they have conceded 8 goals in those games. An injury-hit Alfreton Town are the visitors to Moss Rose so a home win priced at 4/6 could be the best call. Alfreton are offered at 7/2 and are unbeaten in their last five matches. The last three of those have seen the points shared and four consecutive draws for Nicky Law’s team is priced at 11/4. Mansfield Town have won just five of their eleven games this season and are way off the pace that their pre-season title price had suggested. They are 13/10 favourites for a trip to Cambridge, where there has been major upheaval in midweek. Former Luton Town boss Richard Money has been appointed head-coach, with Jez George stepping back upstairs. Money is a good manager at this level and The U’s are 13/8 to get off to a winning start under him.
Hereford United have won just two of their last eight matches, conceding 19 goals in the process. They are 10/11 favourites as they welcome Stockport County to Edgar Street. Stockport are the 5/2 outsiders for the game having won just three of their matches this season. They’ve drawn five of their last seven (including their last four away games) and a draw here is offered at 12/5. Just one win in six has dented Gateshead’s play-off hopes, after starting the season reasonably well. Their trip to Hyde is a tricky game to call and we make Gateshead our narrow 13/10 favourites to win the game. Hyde are offered at 13/8 for what would be just their second win of the season. Woking are priced at 7/4 and Telford are the 13/10 favourites for a clash at The New Buck’s Head. The away side have been inconsistent of late but are unbeaten in their last two games away from Kingfield. Telford have won just one of their last eight and need to get back to the early season form which saw them win three of their first six matches, including a victory at favourites Luton. Braintree Town have taken just three points from the last 18 available to them. Barrow are the weekend visitors to Cressing Road and unusually for them have shown better form on their travels this season. A home win is offered at Evens and an away win for Barrow, having been winners at Ebbsfleet and at Tamworth in recent weeks is offered at a price of 9/4.
Elsewhere Southport host Nuneaton in a clash between two of the bottom seven. The away side could go above Liam Watson’s team with a win priced at 2/1. Southport are the 11/10 favourites and are unbeaten in their last three home games. Nuneaton have dropped into the relegation zone with a winless run of five games but kept a clean-sheet in a goalless draw at home to Wrexham last weekend which points towards an upturn in form. Kidderminster Harriers are now unbeaten in their last seven games, the last of those coming as their first two victories of an extremely slow starting season. An away match at Ebbsfleet United sees them priced as the 5/4 favourites to win three consecutive matches and continue their revival. The Fleet have only won one of their last ten matches and make very little appeal at 7/4 to halt that slide.
Alan’s Best Weekend Treble:
GRIMSBY TOWN to beat Dartford
LUTON TOWN to win at Lincoln City
MACCLESFIELD TOWN to beat Alfreton Town
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